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- Wall Street Isn’t Expecting Much From Netflix’s First Quarter Earnings
Wall Street Isn’t Expecting Much From Netflix’s First Quarter Earnings
Wall Street Isn’t Expecting Much From Netflix’s First Quarter Earnings
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After a lousy fourth quarter that sank its share price, Netflix is set to report its first quarter earnings on Tuesday. Unfortunately, few on Wall Street believe this new report will shift the gloomy narrative currently surrounding the streaming giant.
With 222 million global subscribers at the end of last year, Netflix is still winning the streaming wars in terms of users. Yet these days, the company is adding far fewer new customers as it faces more competition from an expanding roster of streaming services. As a result, it is expected to report its slowest quarterly revenue growth in eight years come Tuesday.
Netflix was already planning to see a drop in new customers going into the first quarter. In December, the company predicted that it would add 2.5 million subscribers from January through March—down from 4 million in the same period last year. Management partly blamed the relatively meager growth forecast on the fact that hit shows like “Bridgerton” wouldn’t air until late in the quarter, as well as lasting economic hardships caused by COVID-19.
But that was before Netflix suspended service in Russia after the country’s invasion of Ukraine, likely losing north of 1 million subscribers as a result. Some analysts are now forecasting as few as 1.45 million net additions when accounting for the subscribers Netflix lost due to pulling out of Russia. Others are more optimistic and projecting upwards of 3 million new subscribers, which would exceed the company’s own expectations
While Netflix could surprise Wall Street, there are many signs that the company is still coming to terms with its subscriber slowdown. The streaming service announced another price hike on U.S. customers in January—a move seen by some observers as a way to squeeze revenue out of existing users as it struggles to add new ones. Even the company’s crackdown on password sharing can be viewed as Netflix turning over the sofa cushions to find loose change. (Executives have also reportedly warned staff to be careful about their spending, according to The Information.)
“Netflix is a frequent topic in our discussions with investors,” JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth wrote in a recent report to clients. “Shares remain controversial and sentiment skews negative.”
After initially being caught flat-footed by the rise of streaming, legacy media players like Disney and the newly-merged Warner Bros. Discovery have recently gained ground on Netflix. In a letter to shareholders in January, Netflix’s management acknowledged that the competition “has only intensified.” Still, the company insists that it still has plenty of runway for growth as consumers continue to flee traditional cable TV for online streaming platforms.
“With under 10% of total TV screen time in the U.S., our biggest market, Netflix has tremendous room for growth if we can continue to improve our service,” the letter said.
With few expecting strong results this time around, the most important details in Tuesday’s earnings will likely be the company’s guidance for the future. Wall Street expects Netflix to forecast roughly 2.5 million net subscriber adds in the second quarter, according to Barron’s—despite the April-through-June period being a historically weak one for the company.
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